There’s a
piece of financial folklore that maintains that when the big news magazines
feature the words Bull Market on their cover, then it signals that the bear is in
the wings about to bound into centre stage. The Economist magazine’s bull is benign
and decked in flowers. Oh dear. This crash is going to be really bad and
central bankers the world over are going to be instructed by the politicians to
do something to keep the voters happy. It will be difficult though. They have
been setting the price of money so low for so long that their powder is both
running out and damp. Is this what’s driving up the price of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency
which might provide refuge from government? Notably, Krugerrands are also at
the year’s high. The JSE’s All Share is up almost 5% this month despite very few
companies reporting that level of earnings growth.
SARS says it
is satisfied with the billion rand that their Special Voluntary Disclosure
Program has raised from taxpayers with previously undisclosed offshore assets. Some
sources suggest they were hoping for four times that and others are wondering
if they had a look under G for Gupta and Z for Zuma in the Dubai phone book.
Less happy, however, are the nation’s 3 689 rated research scientists who
are facing dramatic funding cuts of up to 90%. This is probably unavoidable
given the extremely dire state of government finances and its expenditure
commitment to salaries and social grants. It will, however, probably be the
death knell for virtually all science research in South Africa. Even some of the socialists in the cabinet
should see this as a real calamity.
Durban was
hit by another one of those rain-bombs this week. It came as a great surprise
to everyone including the official weather forecast service who used the event
to complain that some of their kit was more than a decade old and not working.
It will never be known if the tragic loss of life caused by the storm could
have been prevented if SAWS had the resources they say they need to do the job
properly. But some of the havoc was surely due to blocked and insufficient
storm water drains and exacerbated by the tendency for most of us to make poor
decisions when beset by natural hazards. Even if the radio channels had been
blaring timeous warnings, the desire to get home often overwhelms the need for
patience and assessment.
Film makers
must long for the chance to be able to make “fly-on-the-wall” documentaries during
meetings of the South African Cabinet. On one side the Department of
Communications is insisting that the lack of a board of directors for the SABC is
not having a material effect on operations. But simultaneously National Treasury
are complaining that the national broadcaster has far too many temporary executive
appointments. Then there’s the squabble
about selling the state’s shareholding in Telkom to bail SAA out of its bottomless
pit of debt. Meanwhile, the police
minister is inciting his staff to break the law and torture suspects and the
minister of the grossly misnamed Public Service and Administration department
is having a hissy fit because her staff won’t let her spend money on unbudgeted
jaunts. And all of this takes place under the eye of Number One at the head of
the table giggling gently. Award-winning comedy material indeed.
The sequel could
be the parliamentary investigation into the controversy over upgrading Zuma’s
private home at Nkandla. However, the part where the panel members each get
handed a copy of the 92 000-page affidavit produced by the investigators might
get a bit tedious. Ink and paper suppliers to parliament are surely planning
bumper Christmas bonuses.
The news that
the T20 Global League project has collapsed is probably the first time that
most of us have bothered to find out what it was supposed to be. Apparently, this
pet project of Haroon Lorgat the recently departed CEO of Cricket SA did little
more than allow him to jet around the world, seeking support which in the end
he failed to do. Sadly, many sports administrators appear to devote more time
to creating lucrative deals for themselves than to battling evils like
match-fixing and political interference which discourage players, spectators
and crucially sponsors from having mutually rewarding fun.
James Greener
Friday the 13th October 2017
